Kentucky's population grew by 2.2% over the past five years to reach more than 4.6 million, ranking 23rd among states, according to new Census data analyzed by the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy. However, the growth masks a troubling demographic shift: deaths now exceed births in the commonwealth, a reversal from the previous two decades, while immigration has become the primary driver of population increase.

Between 2020 and 2025, deaths outnumbered births by more than 18,000, with 293,120 deaths compared to 274,520 births. This natural population decline reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and Kentucky's lower-than-average life expectancy. International immigration accounted for 70% of the state's net migration growth, contributing 81,789 new residents. Without immigration from other countries, Kentucky's population growth would have been minimal.

The state's troubling health metrics underscore the challenge. Kentucky women born in 1950 can expect to live 78.1 years—seven years less than the leading state—while men are expected to live 72.1 years, six years below the healthiest state. Life expectancy varies dramatically by county, from 64.9 years in Owsley County to 80.3 years in Oldham County. Factors including drug overdoses, alcohol-related liver disease, and suicide have contributed to declining life expectancy even as seniors in other states live longer.

Most population growth is concentrated in prosperous metro and suburban counties. Warren County has been Kentucky's fastest-growing county over the past five years, with 11% growth, while Fayette County grew 2.2%. Rural counties, particularly in eastern and western Kentucky, continue losing residents.

In 2022, immigrants made up 4% of Kentucky's population, 5% of its workforce and 7% of business owners, up from just 2% in each category in 2000. According to recent analysis, Kentucky immigrants contribute an estimated $14 billion to the state's economy, filling critical gaps in construction, agriculture, healthcare, and hospitality sectors.

However, the future of Kentucky's immigrant population remains uncertain. Since Trump's second term began in January 2026, ICE arrests in Kentucky have surged dramatically, with 78% of arrests resulting in deportation compared to 42% during the final two years of Biden's term. As of February 2026, Kentucky had 24 law enforcement agencies with 287(g) agreements allowing them to enforce federal immigration law, and 11 county jails contracting with ICE to hold detainees, with those numbers continuing to increase.

The Kentucky Center for Economic Policy and Immigration Research Institute have warned that mass deportations could result in workforce shortages in industries heavily dependent on immigrant workers, potentially undermining the very engine of population growth that is helping offset Kentucky's demographic decline.