# Kentucky Democrats are underdogs in the U.S. Senate race but several candidates argue they can win  
**Published:** 2026-05-13T09:00:44.000Z  
**Source:** [Kentucky Lantern](https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/05/13/kentucky-democrats-are-underdogs-in-the-u-s-senate-race-but-several-candidates-argue-they-can-win/)  
**Republished from:** [Kentucky Lantern](https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/05/13/kentucky-democrats-are-underdogs-in-the-u-s-senate-race-but-several-candidates-argue-they-can-win/) (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)  
**Canonical:** https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/05/13/kentucky-democrats-are-underdogs-in-the-u-s-senate-race-but-several-candidates-argue-they-can-win/

By Liam Niemeyer, [Kentucky Lantern](https://kentuckylantern.com) · May 13, 2026

![](https://kentuckylantern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/dems-1024x555.jpg) (Democrats hoping to become Kentucky's next U.S. senator participate in a KET debate. From left to right, they are Charles Booker, Amy McGrath and Dale Romans. (Screenshot via KET feed))

A Democrat hasn’t come close to winning a U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky in more than 20 years, having been blown out by Republicans by large margins in past general elections. National organizations tracking and predicting elections also don’t give Democrats much of a shot this time around

But with a rare open seat with Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell retiring, several candidates vying in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary election on May 19 are arguing they can buck that trend. Some candidates are seeking to win over independent and moderate voters while another candidate leans on populist, progressive bona fides.

Two of the candidates in the primary — former state representative Charles Booker and former U.S. fighter pilot Amy McGrath — have previously been the Democratic nominees for U.S. Senate in past general elections and lost by roughly 20 percentage points against incumbents Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, respectively.

Dale Romans, an acclaimed racehorse trainer, is making a pitch he can be an independent Democrat akin to former West Virginia U.S. Joe Manchin. Other candidates including former Secret Service agent Logan Forsythe and Kentucky House Minority Leader Pam Stevenson have also argued they can win in the fall. There are a total of seven candidates in the primary including veteran Joshua Blanton Sr. and beef cattle farmer Vincent Anthony Thompson.

Robert Kahne, a campaign consultant and a member of the Louisville Democratic Party, told the Lantern he believes all the notable candidates running for U.S. Senate can be capable messengers of [what polling shows to be a potentially favorable environment](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/congressional-vote-2026.html) for Democrats heading into the midterm general elections. President Donald Trump has faced increasing backlash, [particularly from independent voters](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-second-term-low-economy-iran-war-rcna331462), over the war in Iran and high gas prices contributing to worsening economy-wide inflation.

Kentucky is a conservative state, Kahne said, but he believes Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s statewide wins show that voters support state-level Democratic priorities, such as strong public schools and strong hospitals. But convincing voters in an election for federal office that the “national Democratic agenda” also benefits them is something Democrats have to figure out.

Awaiting whoever is the Democratic nominee could likely be U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, [who received an endorsement from Trump](https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/05/01/trump-causes-political-earthquake-in-ky-backing-barr-alvarado-in-u-s-senate-house-races/) earlier this month in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

“Are we going to be the underdogs? No doubt about it,” Kahne said. “But the thing is, you can’t win if you don’t run, and you also can’t win if you don’t make the case. And I think that all of the people running are going to be able to do that.”

#### Progressive vision versus moderate appeal

The Democratic candidates in the primary have sparred at times — often over how moderate or progressive of policies should be advocated for —  with what the winning case should be to voters.

Charles Booker, who served in the governor’s office after spending two years in the state legislature, has touted a “40 for 40 for 45” that argues if someone works 40 hours a week, a person should have a minimum of 40 hours of paid sick leave and a minimum income of $45,000.

Booker has also advocated for a single-payer healthcare system through universal Medicare, called the Israeli war in Gaza a “genocide” and states on his campaign website he’s ready to organize a “general strike” against the Trump administration.

During an April debate on Kentucky Educational Television, Dale Romans, the horse trainer, [called some of Booker’s plans unrealistic and unworkable](https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/04/21/cameron-claims-gop-victory-as-dems-disagree-on-medicaid-minimum-wage-in-ket-senate-debate/). Booker told the Lantern “while some of my opponents are offering excuses” he’s “offering a real vision.”

“We’re not tinkering around the edges to tell people, ‘Well, don’t expect your needs to really be met. We can only fund endless war. We can’t really make sure you have childcare or the healthcare you need.’ People are done with that,” Booker said.

![](https://kentuckylantern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-18-at-11.13.03-AM-300x188.png) (Debating on Spectrum News 1, from left, Charles Booker, Amy McGrath, Dale Romans and Pamela Stevenson. (Screenshot))

On the other hand, Amy McGrath, the former U.S. fighter pilot who beat Booker in the 2022 primary elections to be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate that year, characterized Booker as“so far left” that she wasn’t sure “he could get elected in New York City.”

“This race comes down to who is the best candidate to be able to take on whatever Republican gets through the other side and have a credible campaign that can win in a state like Kentucky,” McGrath said in a Lantern interview.

McGrath’s policy platform has focused on stopping “chaotic” trade wars, maintaining a strong military and “supporting an immigration system that is tough, fair, and enforceable.”

Limited public polling has been conducted of the U.S. Senate Democratic primary, though an early April poll by Emerson College showed Charles Booker with 36% of support, Amy McGrath with 18%, Pam Stevenson with 3% and 38% of voters undecided. Both Booker and McGrath have shown they can raise millions of dollars in their past campaigns for U.S. Senate.

Dale Romans, a political newcomer who launched a campaign following encouragement from Beshear, is also arguing he’s a more moderate candidate compared to Booker that can appeal to conservative-leaning Kentuckians.

He told the Lantern that he’s “not a politician” and doesn’t echo the “Democratic talking points,” arguing that he wants to focus on enacting policies that are politically feasible to get through Congress. During that April debate on Kentucky Educational Television, he suggested lowering the age to qualify for Medicare to 50 years old.

“You can get up there and spew off anything you want to say early, knowing that it can never be done. And I’ve never gone down that road,” Romans said. ““I’m a pragmatic Democrat that a Republican doesn’t have to be afraid to vote for.”

#### Making rural inroads

Several candidates in the primary cited Beshear’s ability to win in some rural areas throughout the state, paired with high amounts of support in Kentucky’s largest cities of Louisville and Lexingotn, as a roadmap for a Democrat to win a U.S. Senate primary seat.

The Kentucky Democratic Party has tried initiatives [including listening tours](https://apnews.com/article/rural-democrats-kentucky-beshear-8da4eab2e29da2662d0c0b9cd634a027) to expand rural outreach in rural communities, including in Eastern and Western Kentucky coujnties that had historically supported Democrats only to swing sharply to the GOP, particularly with the political rise of President Donald Trump.

Booker, who [founded the group Hood to the Holler](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/16/hood-to-the-holler-advocacy-group-founded-charles-booker/5452892002/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=true&gca-epti=z117201e1199xxv117201d--80--b--80--&gca-ft=203&gca-ds=sophi) to encourage organizing about issues across rural and urban communities, told the Lantern that his campaign is centered on putting money “into the ground” with organizing “ to empower folks in their communities to organize on the issues they care about.” McGrath told the Lantern she would do town halls around the state to show people, in part, that “you’re not radical.”

![](https://kentuckylantern.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screen-Shot-2025-09-16-at-1.28.49-PM-300x149.png) (Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Logan Forsythe launched his bid for office Tuesday. (Screenshot))

Yet Logan Forsythe, the former Secret Service agent running in the primary, told the Lantern he believes there are candidates — not naming any specifically — in the primary who have failed so far at making appearances around the state, including candidates not responding to invitations to appear at local events.

“They’ll double book and then they’ll cancel something the day of. And if we want to win, you can’t do that in Kentucky. You have to show up,” Forsythe said. “You have to go to these places that are largely ignored by both parties.”

Kahne, the Democratic campaign consultant, said he believes a successful Democratic candidate would need to boost turnout in Kentucky’s smaller cities — Paducah, Murray, Ashland, Pikeville — to combat a Republican edge in rural communities.

“I certainly feel like the coalition, we know what it is. It’s just being able to find the right candidate and the right strategy to actually be able to activate it for different races,” Kahne said.

## Sources

- [Kentucky Lantern](https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/05/13/kentucky-democrats-are-underdogs-in-the-u-s-senate-race-but-several-candidates-argue-they-can-win/)