A new report from the Kentucky Center for Economic Policy warns that mass deportations could trigger severe economic disruptions across Kentucky, with warnings coming as reported by WUKY.

Mass deportations would shrink Kentucky's workforce and could result in labor shortages, particularly in the restaurant and agriculture industries, according to the analysis. Removing immigrants from the state's working population would mean a loss of more than 112,000 workers between the prime ages of 25-54, which could trigger businesses to scale back and could result in higher costs for consumers.

The report comes as the state has seen a more than 30% increase in Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests since 2024. An estimated 50,000 people who are undocumented live in the Commonwealth, though the Trump administration is increasingly targeting people with noncitizen legal status, such as recipients of Temporary Protected Status and asylum-seekers.

Dustin Pugel, policy director at the center, explained the interconnected nature of labor markets. "The concern is that if you either start deporting these folks or even more likely, you just scare them away from work," Pugel explained. "Not only are you creating a shortage in those roles, but you actually make it harder for everyone in the restaurant to make ends meet."

The agriculture industry faces particular vulnerability. In 2025, 6,400 H2-A visas were awarded to producers, allowing migrant workers to fill seasonal farming positions. Removing immigrants would create additional pressure on an industry that is critical to Kentucky's well-being and has already been under decades of strain.

Businesses would be forced to shrink as their ability to adjust by hiring new workers is already significantly constrained given the state's relatively low unemployment rate of 4.3% in January 2026. Costs would go up too, not only because immigrants are often underpaid, but more fundamentally because there would be an under-supply of workers and therefore the goods and services they produce. As a result, Kentuckians would end up paying more for essentials like food, child care, housing and medical care.