Special forces soldier arrested over $400K Maduro raid betting profits

LEXINGTON, Ky. — A U.S. special forces soldier involved in a covert military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested for allegedly placing bets on the raid, according to reporting from LEX 18 News. The soldier netted approximately $400,000 in profits from the trades, drawing swift attention from federal law enforcement.

The trader opened an account in late December on Polymarket, a prominent prediction market platform, and wagered roughly $32,000 that Maduro would be removed from power by January — a bet considered highly unlikely at the time. Shortly after placing the wager, the U.S. military executed a classified overnight operation that extracted Maduro from the presidential palace in Caracas under heavy fire. Maduro was subsequently transported to New York to face federal drug-trafficking charges and has pleaded not guilty.

The unusually profitable trade caught the attention of federal authorities almost immediately. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan's securities and commodity fraud unit launched an investigation into the Maduro-related betting activity, meeting with Polymarket representatives to examine the suspicious trading pattern. The arrest was first reported Thursday by ABC News.

The case highlights growing concerns about insider trading and information security surrounding classified military operations. Polymarket, which allows users to bet on real-world events, has become increasingly popular for speculation on geopolitical developments. The platform operates in a legal gray area in the United States, though it has gained prominence among traders seeking to profit from market predictions.

The soldier's arrest raises questions about operational security protocols and how classified information may have been shared or exploited for financial gain. Federal authorities have not disclosed the soldier's name or military unit, but the investigation underscores the sensitivity surrounding the Maduro capture operation, which marked a significant escalation in U.S. intervention in Venezuelan affairs.