State of the race: GOP backs Comer for Kentucky governor as Dems must choose Beshear allies
U.S. Rep. James Comer appears to be the favorite to win the Republican nomination in next year’s Kentucky governor race before he’s even announced he’s running.
A plane flew over the Fancy Farm Picnic in West Kentucky Saturday saying, “Run, Comer, Run.” Most Republicans used their remarks at party events and the picnic to suggest Comer should seek the governorship — including Secretary of State Michael Adams, who had been considering a run himself.
Adams told the Lantern after the picnic that he views Comer as “the best candidate we’ll have.” On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman and former Democratic state House leader Rocky Adkins have launched campaigns. They both have high-profile ties to Gov. Andy Beshear, who has remained popular with voters throughout his two-terms in office.
Adams said it would be a “black eye” for Beshear with Democratic voters nationally if Beshear’s party were to lose the governorship after he leaves office and he were to run for president in 2028. Adams predicts that Beshear “will pull all the stops that he can to try to save the seat for his party.”
“My goal is to prevent a primary, and then we can run to free country,” Adams said. “But if we don’t have everyone shooting at James Comer, he can conserve his money, and the Democrats can have their primary battle. I think we’re going to have a very competitive general election.”
Comer, a 53-year-old who represents Kentucky’s 1st Congressional District and has gained national attention as the chairman of the fiery House Oversight Committee, told reporters Saturday that running for governor was something he’d “make a decision on very soon.” He’s currently seeking reelection to his House seat.
“But it looks really good right now, especially at the prospect of having a pretty united Republican ticket, and that’s something that’s very important because the Democrats have had a lot greater success in the governor’s race than the Republicans over the last 50 years, and I think there’s a craving for new leadership in Kentucky,” Comer said.
Tres Watson, a former spokesperson for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said Comer has been working to “mend fences” and “make new inroads.” Watson said that with an open seat, another candidate will likely declare but “it’ll be a D or an F tier opponent, not anybody in the A- or B-tier.”
Contested primaries have worked for and against both parties. Comer previously ran for governor in 2015 after serving as agriculture commissioner. He lost that primary to former Gov. Matt Bevin by 83 votes. It was a heated primary between the Republicans, and Democrats went into the year backing former Attorney General Jack Conway, who Bevin defeated.
In the last governor’s race, the 2023 GOP primary was crowded and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron won the nomination after besting Republican mega-donor Kelly Craft and Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles. Cameron, however, lost to Beshear that fall.
“I think there’s a lot of appetite to avoid that and be able to pool our money and sit back and wait to see which Democrat we have to face,” Watson said.
Watson noted that Cameron had to speak a lot about opposing abortion in the primary to win over hard-right conservatives, but then later attempted to soften his stance after Beshear’s campaign ran ads targeting those views.
“Comer doesn’t have to be as overreactive to those groups if he doesn’t have a strong primary challenge,” Watson said.
How will Dems decide?
Watson said that he anticipates that the Democrats in the race — Adkins and Coleman — “won’t be contentious publicly,” but it will be “very contentious behind closed doors.”
Coleman ran with Beshear in both of his elections. She’s touted her past as an assistant principal and basketball coach to make education a focus of her campaign. Meanwhile, Adkins, who left his role as Beshear’s senior adviser before launching his campaign, has said he’s the best “fighter” to take on Republicans. Adkins previously ran for governor in 2019, losing that primary to Beshear by about six points.
Friday before the Fancy Farm Picnic, Coleman told the Lantern she plans to focus on accomplishments she’s had while working with Beshear throughout the last two terms, but also “I also think it’s important to differentiate myself as someone who is looking to the future.”
“We have to be focused on what we need to get done, not what we’ve already done,” she said.
Former Lt. Gov. Crit Luallen, who served under former Gov. Steve Beshear, said Coleman would be Democrats’ best chance against Comer because it would be “a sharp contrast” on major policy issues, like education. Plus, education is “not a partisan issue nor a progressive versus conservative issue,” which could help Coleman reach out to moderate and independent voters in a general election, Luallen added.
“It’s difficult for a woman candidate to walk that fine line between being really not too abrasive, not too aggressive, but also being strong enough for people to recognize her leadership strengths, and I think that’s that’s the key for Jacqueline. She has to have that balance,” Luallen said.
Meanwhile, Adkins told reporters Friday he plans to focus on his experience in both the legislative and executive branch. He said under Beshear he’s been “in the room when decisions have been made” and travelled with and for him across the state.
“I don’t need a class. I don’t need any special training,” he said. “I am battle-tested. I am ready to be governor, and I’m ready to be governor on day one.”
Erin Petrey, a progressive who recently ran for the U.S. House in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, said Adkins has “the best crossover appeal” and views him as someone who could bring voters who have left the Democratic Party in recent years back into the fold. Kentucky Republicans gained the majority of registered voters in July 2022.
Adkins’ connection to Eastern Kentucky may also be a key factor for him. From Elliot County, Adkins represented the 99th House District from 1987 to 2019.
“Kentucky Democrats — we used to be the working class. It used to be a lot of folks in Eastern Kentucky, like where part of my family is from, and now the party has really just become identified with Louisville and Lexington,” Petrey said. “And Rocky is someone who I think every Kentuckian can see some of themselves in him.”
Both Luallen and Petrey agreed that a competitive primary is good for the Democrats.
Luallen said that as Democrats nationally are “struggling with its identity” — a mix of progressives, moderates and conservatives — Kentucky’s primary between Coleman and Adkins will “get people interested and focused on the governor’s race.”
“I think having a healthy primary will get people focused on the governor’s race and paying attention to the candidates and the issues in ways that will help drive up the vote and turnout,” she added.
Petrey said it’s “fascinating that the Republicans are essentially going to pull a Democrat move from 2015” to clear the field for Comer as Democrats did for Conway. She noted that “is what yielded Bevin.”
Contested primaries “are incredibly healthy for not just democracy but for our party,” Petrey said.
“It gets people having important conversations. It gets people thinking critically. It gets people maybe challenging some of their preconceived notions, and I think it’s very healthy for a party,” she added. “And it also makes people pay more attention to Democrats in a state where we’re still struggling.”